K. R. Srivats
New Delhi, Feb. 20 A more than three-fold jump in private remittances is expected in 2009-10 as the economy stages a stronger-than-estimated rebound in the second half, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (PMEAC) has projected.
Overall, private remittances in 2009-10 are expected to be over $55 billion, reflecting a 25 per cent increase over 2008-09.
Private remittances grew a modest 7 per cent in 2008-09 to $44.6 billion ($41.7 billion in 2007-08) as the global financial meltdown cast a shadow on the remittance flow into India in the second half of 2008-09.
So what explains the optimism of the 25 per cent increase in private remittances this fiscal?
"In the first half of 2009-10, we already have data to show that remittances were $26.7 billion (higher than $25 billion in first half of 2008-09).
"We are projecting $30 billion for the second half. Traditionally, second half remittances are larger than the first half, except last year when there were exceptional circumstances during the crisis," a PMEAC member told Business Line.
Growth is expected in the second half of 2009-10 as well and in percentage terms may be quite large on account of the depressed level of remittances in the second half of 2008-09.
For the second half of 2009-10, the PMEAC estimates private remittances of $30 billion, an almost 50 per cent increase over the near $20-billion received in the first half of 2008-09.
"I think $30-billion remittance is going to come in the second half. We are confident about it," a PMEAC member said.
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